Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
